Policy futures · prototype
Forecasts on every consequential cell of government data
Three coupled forecast types fall out of the integrated stack: government data points on published statistics, policy state forecasts on law-encoded parameters, and conditional forecasts on outcomes given policy states. The prototype shows the target agent workflow: call public data and the PolicyEngine microsim, then publish calibrated uncertainty with an audit trail behind it.
All three forecast types. Sorted by earliest expected resolution.
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026SPM child poverty rate, 2025
forecast · 80% CI13.1%
12.0%13.1%14.4%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Official poverty rate, 2025
forecast · 80% CI10.4%
9.8%10.4%11.1%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026Median household income, 2025
forecast · 80% CI$80,600
$78,600$80,600$82,900
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2026SPM poverty rate, 2025
forecast · 80% CI12.7%
12.0%12.7%13.5%
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2026SNAP maximum allotment, family of 4, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,010
$975.00$1,010$1,045
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2026Maximum EITC, 3+ children, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$8,500
$8,050$8,500$9,100
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027Federal minimum wage on Jan 1, 2027
forecast · 80% CI$7.25
$7.25$7.25$9.50
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027Unemployment rate, December 2026
forecast · 80% CI4.3%
3.9%4.3%4.8%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027Labor force participation rate, December 2026
forecast · 80% CI62.4%
61.9%62.4%62.8%
Government dataLive API path
resolves Jan 2027CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026
forecast · 80% CI2.6%
2.1%2.6%3.2%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jan 2027Real GDP growth, 2026 (Q4/Q4)
forecast · 80% CI+1.9%
+0.9%+1.9%+2.8%
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2027CTC monthly maximum per child, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$183/mo
$83/mo$183/mo$250/mo
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2027ACA exchange plan selections, OEP 2027
forecast · 80% CI19.8M
14M19.8M25M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027Median household income, 2026
forecast · 80% CI$81,200
$79,100$81,200$83,400
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027Uninsured rate (under 65), 2026
forecast · 80% CI10.1%
9.2%10.1%11.2%
ConditionalStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2027Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC
forecast · 80% CI7.2%
5.8%7.2%9.0%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027Federal individual income tax revenue, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$2,740
$2,580$2,740$2,910
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027Federal payroll tax receipts, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,860B
$1,760B$1,860B$1,985B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027Estate and gift tax receipts, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$45B
$28B$45B$72B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2027Corporate income tax receipts, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$570B
$430B$570B$730B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027SNAP benefit outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$128B
$116B$128B$143B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027ACA premium tax credit outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$94B
$62B$94B$132B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$49B
$32B$49B$78B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027SSI federal payments, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$75B
$68B$75B$84B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Federal Medicaid outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$655B
$600B$655B$720B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Housing Choice Voucher outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$36B
$32B$36B$42B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,605B
$1,540B$1,605B$1,685B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Nov 2027Medicare benefit outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,110B
$1,035B$1,110B$1,210B
PolicyLive API path
resolves Dec 2027Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$109.6B
$78.8B$109.6B$140.4B
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027Standard deduction, joint filers, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$32,000
$16,000$32,000$35,000
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027Top individual income tax rate, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI37.0%
37.0%37.0%39.6%
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027SALT deduction cap, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$22,000
$10,000$22,000$80,000
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2027Refundable CTC amount, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$1,800
$1,000$1,800$2,500
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028SSI recipients, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI7.4M
7.1M7.4M7.7M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028OASDI beneficiaries, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI70M
68.8M70M71.4M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2028Retired-worker average benefit, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI$2,190/mo
$2,110/mo$2,190/mo$2,285/mo
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028WIC average monthly participation, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI6.9M
6.3M6.9M7.6M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028National School Lunch participation, SY2026-27
forecast · 80% CI30.4M
28.8M30.4M32.3M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028TANF federal outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$17B
$15B$17B$19.5B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028Child Care and Development Fund outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$12.5B
$9B$12.5B$17B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028SNAP average monthly participation, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI40.6M
37.4M40.6M44.1M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028School Breakfast participation, SY2026-27
forecast · 80% CI15.2M
14M15.2M16.7M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028SNAP average monthly households, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI21.7M
19.8M21.7M23.8M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028School Breakfast federal outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$6.7B
$5.8B$6.7B$7.8B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028WIC federal outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$8.5B
$7.2B$8.5B$10B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028LIHEAP federal funding, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$4.1B
$2.4B$4.1B$6.8B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028Medicare total enrollment, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI70.7M
69.2M70.7M72.3M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2028SNAP average benefit per person, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$232/mo
$216/mo$232/mo$252/mo
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Apr 2028Medicaid and CHIP child enrollment, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI36.8M
34.5M36.8M39.4M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028Medicaid and CHIP enrollment, Dec 2027
forecast · 80% CI82M
77M82M88M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028Head Start funded enrollment, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI0.8M
0.7M0.8M0.9M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028TANF average monthly families, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI0.7M
0.6M0.7M0.9M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028Housing Choice Voucher households leased, December 2027
forecast · 80% CI2.3M
2.2M2.3M2.5M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028Federal Pell Grant outlays, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$34.5B
$28B$34.5B$43B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Jun 2028ACA PTC average subsidy per enrollee, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$690/mo
$560/mo$690/mo$860/mo
PolicyLive API path
resolves Aug 2028CTC outlays under current law, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$60.5B
$52B$60.5B$70B
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028EITC outlays, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$74B
$65B$74B$84B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028Children receiving the CTC, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI48M
45M48M51M
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Aug 2028Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$6.2B
$4.8B$6.2B$7.8B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2028SPM child poverty rate, 2027
forecast · 80% CI11.8%
10.5%11.8%13.4%
ConditionalStatic mock trace
resolves Oct 2028Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed
forecast · 80% CI$2,790
$2,630$2,790$2,960
PolicyStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI$38B
$25B$38B$55B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Child support distributed collections, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI$27.8B
$25B$27.8B$31B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Child and dependent care credit returns, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI5.9M
5M5.9M7M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Premium tax credit claimant returns, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI10.8M
7.4M10.8M15.2M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Additional Child Tax Credit returns, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI16.2M
13.2M16.2M19.6M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2028Itemized charitable contributions, TY2026
forecast · 80% CI$305B
$245B$305B$375B
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Feb 2029Pell Grant recipients, award year 2027-28
forecast · 80% CI7.2M
6.4M7.2M8.2M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Mar 2029CCDF average monthly children served, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI1.4M
1.1M1.4M1.8M
ConditionalStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026
forecast · 80% CI11.5%
10.3%11.5%12.8%
ConditionalStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029Uninsured rate (under 65) 2028 | ACA enhanced subsidies expire
forecast · 80% CI11.3%
10.2%11.3%12.4%
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Sep 2029LIHEAP households assisted, FY2027
forecast · 80% CI5.1M
3.4M5.1M6.9M
Government dataStatic mock trace
resolves Dec 2029EITC claimant returns, TY2027
forecast · 80% CI23.4M
21.6M23.4M25.5M
How forecasts are generated
Every forecast cell is opened by the Farness analyst agent, which decomposes the question, calls the PolicyEngine microsim against scenarios drawn from law-encoded statutes and MICROPLEX synthetic populations, integrates external baselines (CBO, FOMC SEP, JCT, BLS, Census), and produces a calibrated distribution. Open each forecast to read the full streaming reasoning.