Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Child and dependent care credit returns, TY2026

How many individual income tax returns will claim the federal child and dependent care credit for tax year 2026?

current forecast · 80% CI5.9M
5M5.9M7M
history:TY2019: 6.3MTY2020: 5.6MTY2021: 6.5MTY2023e: 5.8M

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

Key drivers

  • Child care use among working parents
  • Credit generosity and phaseout
  • Filing and documentation behavior
  • Labor force participation of parents

Resolution

source
IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data
expected
December 31, 2028
rule
Resolves to the number of TY2026 individual income tax returns claiming the federal child and dependent care credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income individual income tax table that reports this credit.
Data point
irs.soi.child_dependent_care_credit_returns.ty2026

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming

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irs.lookupqueued
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