Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SPM child poverty rate, 2025
What will the Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?
current forecast · 80% CI13.1%
12.0%13.1%14.4%
history:2021: 5.2%2022: 12.4%2023: 13.7%2024: 13.4%
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
Key drivers
- CTC and EITC current-law parameters
- 2025 labor-market strength
- Shelter and medical out-of-pocket costs
- SNAP and school-meals resources
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025
- expected
- September 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the official SPM child poverty rate (children under 18) for calendar year 2025 in the Census Poverty in the United States report, expected in September 2026. If Census publishes multiple SPM variants, this uses the main published SPM table.
- Data point
- census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming
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▸ policyengine.simulatequeued
▸ census.lookupqueued
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.