ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
Federal individual income tax revenue FY2028 | SALT cap fully repealed
Conditional on the SALT deduction cap being repealed in full (no cap) for tax years 2026 and later, what will federal individual income tax revenue be in FY2028 (in billions of nominal dollars)?
conditional on: IRC §164(b)(6) SALT cap fully eliminated for TY2026 and later
current forecast · 80% CI$2,790
$2,630$2,790$2,960
history:FY2024: $2,426FY2025e: $2,520FY2026e: $2,640FY2027e: $2,740
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
Key drivers
- Itemizer redistribution effect
- Behavioral response (state tax migration, charitable shifts)
- Underlying nominal income growth
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement (final September FY2028)
- expected
- October 20, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to total individual income tax receipts for FY2028 as reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement covering September 2028, conditional on the SALT deduction cap under IRC §164(b)(6) being fully eliminated for TY2026 and later. If the cap is not fully eliminated, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.
- Data point
- treasury.mts.individual_income_tax.fy2028
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
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