ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
Child poverty 2026 | $3,000 fully refundable CTC
Conditional on a $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for tax year 2026, what will the Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate be for calendar year 2026?
conditional on: $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit in effect for tax year 2026
current forecast · 80% CI7.2%
5.8%7.2%9.0%
history:2021: 5.2%2022: 12.4%2023: 13.7%2024: 13.4%Policy sim: 7.0%
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
Key drivers
- Refundable CTC take-up
- Macro labor-market path
- SPM poverty thresholds
- Tax-unit to SPM-unit mapping
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, SPM annual release
- expected
- September 15, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the official Census SPM child poverty rate for calendar year 2026, conditional on a materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable CTC being in effect for TY2026. If the policy is not in effect, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.
- Data point
- census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming
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▸ policyengine.simulatequeued
▸ census.lookupqueued
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.