ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
Child poverty 2028 | TCJA extension passes by Q2 2026
Conditional on a full TCJA extension package (CTC at $2,000, current refundability, current EITC) being enacted by June 30, 2026, what will the SPM child poverty rate be in 2028?
conditional on: TCJA extension package matching House framework enacted by 2026-06-30
current forecast · 80% CI11.5%
10.3%11.5%12.8%
history:2022: 12.4%2023: 13.7%2024: 13.4%2025e: 12.9%2027e (cond.): 11.8%
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
Key drivers
- Conditional CTC parameters
- Labor-force trajectory under stable policy
- Refundability phase-in
Resolution
- source
- Census SPM annual release
- expected
- September 15, 2029
- rule
- Resolves to the official Census SPM child poverty rate for 2028, conditional on the event 'a TCJA extension package matching at least the House-passed framework on CTC and EITC is enacted by 2026-06-30.' If the conditioning event does not occur, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.
- Data point
- census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2028
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.