Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SPM poverty rate, 2025
What will the overall Supplemental Poverty Measure poverty rate be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?
current forecast · 80% CI12.7%
12.0%12.7%13.5%
history:2021: 7.8%2022: 12.4%2023: 12.9%2024: 12.9%
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
Key drivers
- Refundable credit policy in 2025
- Rent and medical out-of-pocket costs
- Employment and wage growth
- SNAP and housing assistance
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025
- expected
- September 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the official Supplemental Poverty Measure poverty rate for all people in calendar year 2025, as published in the Census Poverty in the United States report expected in September 2026.
- Data point
- census.spm.all_people_poverty_rate.2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming
§
§
▸ policyengine.simulatequeued
▸ census.lookupqueued
§
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.