PolicyForecast cell on a law-encoded policy parameter.

Revenue cost of a $40k SALT cap, TY2027

If the SALT deduction cap is set at $40,000 for joint filers in tax year 2027, what will the federal individual income tax revenue loss be relative to a $10,000 cap?

current forecast · 80% CI$38B
$25B$38B$55B
history:$10k cap: $0B$20k est.: $18B$40k est.: $38Bno cap est.: $93B

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

Key drivers

  • High-income itemizer distribution
  • State and local tax growth
  • Interaction with AMT and standard deduction
  • Behavioral response in state tax planning

Resolution

source
Joint Committee on Taxation or Congressional Budget Office
expected
December 31, 2028
rule
Resolves to the first official JCT or CBO estimate of the federal individual-income-tax revenue loss, in billions of nominal dollars, from raising the TY2027 joint SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000 under otherwise comparable law.
Policy parameter
irc.164.b.6.cap_joint.2027

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming

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policyengine.simulatequeued
jct.lookupqueued

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