PolicyForecast cell on a law-encoded policy parameter.
Cost of a $3,000 fully refundable CTC, TY2026
What will official scorers estimate as the federal budget cost of a $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, relative to current law?
current forecast · 80% CI$109.6B
$78.8B$109.6B$140.4B
history:PE prior: $102BCalibrated: $109.6B
opening live stream
Key drivers
- PolicyEngine raw economy impact
- Official-score calibration
- Refundability and phase-in design
- Eligible child population and filing behavior
Resolution
- source
- Joint Committee on Taxation or Congressional Budget Office
- expected
- December 31, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the first official JCT or CBO estimate, in billions of nominal dollars, for the tax-year 2026 federal budget effect of a materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit scored against current law.
- Policy parameter
- gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.fully_refundable
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
streamingLive API pathThis cell is opening a server-sent reasoning stream. If the API is unavailable, the page falls back to the static mock trace.
opening live stream
Opening live analyst stream…
Live mode queries the PolicyEngine policy and economy APIs, applies an explicit calibration prior, and calls the forecast model when AI Gateway credentials are available. If the API fails, the page replays the static trace.