PolicyForecast cell on a law-encoded policy parameter.
CTC outlays under current law, TY2026
What will federal Child Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026 under current law, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$60.5B
$52B$60.5B$70B
history:TY2021: $150BTY2022: $68BTY2024: $59BTY2025e: $61B
opening live stream
Key drivers
- Qualifying-child population
- Refundable portion and phase-in
- Filing and take-up behavior
- Income distribution around phase-outs
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables
- expected
- August 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to federal outlays/refundable-credit cost attributable to the Child Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS/Treasury table that separately identifies the CTC.
- Policy parameter
- gov.irs.credits.ctc
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
streamingLive API pathThis cell is opening a server-sent reasoning stream. If the API is unavailable, the page falls back to the static mock trace.
opening live stream
Opening live analyst stream…
Live mode queries the PolicyEngine current-law policy, applies an explicit CTC outlay calibration prior, and streams the adjustment path. If the API fails, the page replays the static trace.