PolicyForecast cell on a law-encoded policy parameter.

EITC outlays, TY2026

What will federal Earned Income Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026, in nominal dollars?

current forecast · 80% CI$74B
$65B$74B$84B
history:TY2021: $63BTY2022: $60BTY2024: $69BTY2025e: $72B

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

Key drivers

  • Low-wage employment
  • Number of qualifying children
  • Self-employment income reporting
  • Indexation of credit schedules

Resolution

source
IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables
expected
August 31, 2028
rule
Resolves to federal outlays/refundable-credit cost attributable to the Earned Income Tax Credit for tax year 2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS/Treasury table that separately identifies the EITC.
Policy parameter
gov.irs.credits.eitc

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming

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policyengine.simulatequeued
irs.lookupqueued

The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

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