Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Unemployment insurance outlays, FY2027

What will federal unemployment insurance benefit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?

current forecast · 80% CI$49B
$32B$49B$78B
history:FY2020: $477BFY2022: $36BFY2024: $34BFY2026e: $42B

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

Key drivers

  • Unemployment rate path
  • Initial and continued claims
  • Average weekly benefit
  • Extended-benefit triggers

Resolution

source
Monthly Treasury Statement and Department of Labor ETA
expected
November 30, 2027
rule
Resolves to federal unemployment insurance benefit outlays for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury or Department of Labor fiscal-year table that reports UI benefits.
Data point
treasury.mts.unemployment_insurance_outlays.fy2027

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

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Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
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