PolicyForecast cell on a law-encoded policy parameter.
Refundable AOTC outlays, TY2026
What will federal refundable American Opportunity Tax Credit outlays be for tax year 2026, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$6.2B
$4.8B$6.2B$7.8B
history:TY2019: $5.6BTY2021: $5.9BTY2023: $5.8BTY2025e: $6B
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
Key drivers
- College enrollment
- Tuition and qualified expenses
- Refundability cap
- Income phase-outs
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income and Treasury tax expenditure tables
- expected
- August 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to refundable American Opportunity Tax Credit outlays for TY2026, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official IRS SOI or Treasury table that separately identifies the refundable AOTC amount.
- Policy parameter
- gov.irs.credits.education.american_opportunity.refundable
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming
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▸ policyengine.simulatequeued
▸ irs.lookupqueued
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.