Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027

What will federal Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?

current forecast · 80% CI$1,605B
$1,540B$1,605B$1,685B
history:FY2021: $1,135BFY2023: $1,354BFY2025e: $1,495BFY2026e: $1,550B

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

Key drivers

  • COLA inflation index
  • Beneficiary count
  • Average indexed monthly earnings
  • Disability incidence

Resolution

source
Social Security Administration and Monthly Treasury Statement
expected
November 30, 2027
rule
Resolves to OASDI benefit payments for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official SSA or Treasury fiscal-year table that reports Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefits.
Data point
ssa.oasdi.benefit_outlays.fy2027

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming

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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

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