Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Premium tax credit claimant returns, TY2026

How many individual income tax returns will claim the federal premium tax credit for tax year 2026?

current forecast · 80% CI10.8M
7.4M10.8M15.2M
history:TY2019: 5.8MTY2021: 8.9MTY2023e: 11.2MTY2025e: 13.2M

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

Key drivers

  • Enhanced premium tax credit status
  • Exchange plan selections
  • Advance credit reconciliation
  • Household income distribution

Resolution

source
IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data
expected
December 31, 2028
rule
Resolves to the number of TY2026 individual income tax returns claiming the premium tax credit or reconciling advance premium tax credits on Form 8962, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2026 individual returns.
Data point
irs.soi.premium_tax_credit_claimant_returns.ty2026

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming

§

irs.lookupqueued
policyengine.simulatequeued

The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

More government data forecasts