PolicyForecast cell on a law-encoded policy parameter.

SALT deduction cap, TY2027

What will the maximum federal state-and-local tax deduction (for joint filers) be in tax year 2027?

current forecast · 80% CI$22,000
$10,000$22,000$80,000
history:Pre-TCJA: $100,000TCJA cap: $10,0002024: $10,0002025: $10,000

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

Key drivers

  • TCJA extension package details
  • Blue-state House Republican leverage
  • Joint Committee scoring constraints

Resolution

source
Internal Revenue Code §164(b)(6)
expected
December 31, 2027
rule
Resolves to the cap on the deduction for state and local taxes under IRC §164(b)(6) applicable to joint filers in TY2027. If no cap is in force, resolves at the projected average itemizer SALT amount in the SOI distribution (functionally 'no cap').
Policy parameter
irc.164.b.6.cap_joint.2027

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
analyst agent streaming

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axiom.queryqueued
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policyengine.simulatequeued

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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

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